Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.95 – 69.88

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.7 ±9.8

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 72.95Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 12.59Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4026Decatur Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 94.41Rank 11Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175.1 ±10.4

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -8.13Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3344Space Dragons

Season APEX 44.3Event APEX 2.17Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 75.84Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4112, 11214, 4026

/ 100 compat

Projected

180 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4112, 11214, 4026

Auto

37.3 20%

Teleop

90.7 49%

Endgame

55.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6910, 3344, 8736

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6910, 3344, 8736

Auto

25.9 37%

Teleop

28.9 42%

Endgame

14.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score180pts

Blue projected score69.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.1
Score range: 31–219
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 215.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.7Season APEX175.1

37.3Auto25.9

90.7Teleop28.9

55.5Endgame14.7

67Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	29
teleop	35	50
endgame	21	27
foul	0	5
total	76	111

Result

Final score

76 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 72.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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