Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289 – 186.34

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.2 ±9.8

4189Chargers

Season APEX 210.4Event APEX 137.59Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 91.2Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 60.21Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.1 ±10.4

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 142.93Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 16.75Rank 43Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6887Dalton Catabots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 26.66Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4189, 8736, 832

/ 100 compat

Projected

289 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4189, 8736, 832

Auto

55.9 20%

Teleop

149.2 55%

Endgame

67.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8866, 3815, 6887

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8866, 3815, 6887

Auto

49.9 27%

Teleop

111.5 61%

Endgame

20.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score289pts

Blue projected score186.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.7
Score range: 148–327
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 209.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.2Season APEX201.1

55.9Auto49.9

149.2Teleop111.5

67.8Endgame20.1

100Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	49
teleop	170	19
endgame	69	37
foul	0	0
total	320	105

Result

Final score

320 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 56.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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