Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

230.73 – 127.39

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 91.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.8 ±10.4

6340The Marist Manatees

Season APEX 81.9Event APEX 62.41Rank 38Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4112EagleBots

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 130.88Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 37.44Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±10.4

6705Wildcat5e

Season APEX 78.6Event APEX 76.02Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4509Mechanical Bulls

Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 17.75Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3635Flying Legion

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 33.62Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6340, 4112, 9480

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6340, 4112, 9480

Auto

31.2 14%

Teleop

126.4 58%

Endgame

60.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6705, 4509, 3635

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6705, 4509, 3635

Auto

14.2 11%

Teleop

50.5 40%

Endgame

60.1 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score230.7pts

Blue projected score127.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.3
Score range: 89–269
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 211.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.8Season APEX215.4

31.2Auto14.2

126.4Teleop50.5

60.8Endgame60.1

60Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	26
teleop	54	87
endgame	16	64
foul	0	0
total	98	177

Result

Final score

98 – 177

Prediction missed · off by 91.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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