Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.75 – 297.17

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

522 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 125.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.4 ±8.7

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 71.63Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6919The Commodores

Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 109.71Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1833Team BEAN

A+

Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 138.41Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447.6 ±9.3

1683Techno Titans

Season APEX 95.8Event APEX 127.04Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 148.71Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11214[CY]BEARCATS robotics

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 21.42Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9477, 6919, 1833

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9477, 6919, 1833

Auto

78.5 25%

Teleop

164.4 53%

Endgame

67.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1683, 1771, 11214

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1683, 1771, 11214

Auto

54.3 18%

Teleop

197.5 64%

Endgame

55.3 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score319.8pts

Blue projected score297.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.6
Score range: 259–358
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 771 vs event baseline 209.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.4Season APEX447.6

78.5Auto54.3

164.4Teleop197.5

67.8Endgame55.3

130Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	62
teleop	302	121
endgame	124	66
foul	0	0
total	522	249

Result

Final score

522 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 125.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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