Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.55 – 77.35

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 207.6 ±10.4

9480The Gear Bears

Season APEX 77.8Event APEX 44.68Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3091100 Scholars

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 21.39Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9522Archimedes

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 49.48Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.9 ±10.4

5219TeknoSquad 5219

Season APEX 67.2Event APEX 35.07Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3815NF Raiders

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX -0.59Rank 43Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 42.87Rank 15Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9480, 3091, 9522

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9480, 3091, 9522

Auto

11.3 11%

Teleop

57.1 55%

Endgame

35.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5219, 3815, 6023

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5219, 3815, 6023

Auto

9.1 15%

Teleop

18.8 30%

Endgame

34.8 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.58 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score115.5pts

Blue projected score77.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 38.2
Score range: 39–154
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-18
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 173 vs event baseline 211.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

207.6Season APEX191.9

11.3Auto9.1

57.1Teleop18.8

35.7Endgame34.8

0Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	13
teleop	16	78
endgame	8	39
foul	0	0
total	43	130

Result

Final score

43 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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