Qualification · Qualification 13
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
149.93 – 115.83
60%40%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
348 – 194
Prediction correct · off by 138.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 57.08Rank 11Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 67.14Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 25.71Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±9.8
Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 70.45Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 17.85Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 27.53Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4026, 1002, 9522
57
/ 100 compatProjected
149.9 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4026, 1002, 9522
Auto
32.8 23%
Teleop
78.0 54%
Endgame
32.8 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6919, 5900, 6887
49
/ 100 compatProjected
115.8 pts
~1.2 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 6919, 5900, 6887
Auto
20.1 19%
Teleop
52.5 49%
Endgame
34.4 32%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.17
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score149.9pts
Blue projected score115.8pts
Red win probability60%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 26%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 34.1
- Score range
- 75–191
- Upset likelihood
- 40%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
417.7Season APEX345.9
32.8Auto20.1
78Teleop52.5
32.8Endgame34.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 71 | 44 |
| teleop | 190 | 89 |
| endgame | 87 | 61 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 348 | 194 |
Result
Final score
348 – 194
Prediction correct · off by 138.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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