Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.46 – 188.08

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

248 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.8 ±8.7

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 40.28Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 67.14Rank 14Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 44.04Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±10.4

3091100 Scholars

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 44.04Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 60.17Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10482BuzzBots

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 83.87Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1648, 6829, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1648, 6829, 1261

Auto

32.3 22%

Teleop

72.1 49%

Endgame

41.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3091, 6925, 10482

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3091, 6925, 10482

Auto

19.8 11%

Teleop

116.3 62%

Endgame

51.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score151.5pts

Blue projected score188.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.6
Score range: 110–229
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 228.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.8Season APEX339.8

32.3Auto19.8

72.1Teleop116.3

41.3Endgame51.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	22
teleop	142	68
endgame	53	44
foul	0	0
total	248	134

Result

Final score

248 – 134

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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