Peachtree District Championship presented by Mercer University

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

281.58 – 114.76

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

375 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 129.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456.9 ±9.3

8736The Mechanisms

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 94.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1771North Gwinnett Robotics

Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 132.15Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 54.57Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.9 ±9.3

7451AvengerRobotics

Season APEX 143.4Event APEX 60.73Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

832OSCAR

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 20.84Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 33.19Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8736, 1771, 9477

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8736, 1771, 9477

Auto

63.9 23%

Teleop

154.5 56%

Endgame

58.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7451, 832, 4188

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7451, 832, 4188

Auto

22.3 20%

Teleop

45.0 41%

Endgame

41.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.6pts

Blue projected score114.8pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.8
Score range: 76–321
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 218.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456.9Season APEX423.9

63.9Auto22.3

154.5Teleop45

58.6Endgame41.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	37
teleop	212	125
endgame	93	93
foul	0	25
total	375	280

Result

Final score

375 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 129.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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