Final · Finals 1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
530.08 – 408.11
82%18%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
557 – 227
Prediction correct · off by 104 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 69.1Event APEX 45.16Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 303.7Event APEX 244.57Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 276.3Event APEX 240.35Rank 1Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.5 ±9.3
Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 28.51Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 165.52Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 214.08Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4509, 1833, 1771
81
/ 100 compatProjected
530.1 pts
~2.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4509, 1833, 1771
Auto
116.9 22%
Teleop
308.4 59%
Endgame
99.4 19%
Strengths
- · 1833 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3635, 6919, 1002
85
/ 100 compatProjected
408.1 pts
~0.8 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3635, 6919, 1002
Auto
89.6 22%
Teleop
200.2 50%
Endgame
109.7 27%
Strengths
- · 1002 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 10%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.84
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score530.1pts
Blue projected score408.1pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 122
- Score range
- 367–571
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
649.1Season APEX565.5
116.9Auto89.6
308.4Teleop200.2
99.4Endgame109.7
0Consistency36
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 145 | 57 |
| teleop | 344 | 113 |
| endgame | 63 | 57 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 557 | 227 |
Result
Final score
557 – 227
Prediction correct · off by 104 pts
Match videos
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