PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.77 – 117.01

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±11.7

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 46.05Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 31.37Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3091100 Scholars

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 31.35Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±9.9

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 45.36Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 21.97Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 49.68Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7514, 6910, 3091

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7514, 6910, 3091

Auto

25.0 23%

Teleop

59.9 55%

Endgame

23.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9477, 5074, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

117 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 5074, 1648

Auto

30.0 23%

Teleop

62.0 48%

Endgame

35.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.8pts

Blue projected score117pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.2
Score range: 84–142
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 141.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.8Season APEX267.6

25Auto30

59.9Teleop62

23.9Endgame35.9

0Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	47
teleop	14	124
endgame	4	0
foul	0	5
total	29	176

Result

Final score

29 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Match videos

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