PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.84 – 146.55

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 102.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±10.5

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX -2.34Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 34Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 94.18Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±9.9

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 55.1Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 31.67Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 59.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10338, 6023, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10338, 6023, 1261

Auto

18.8 15%

Teleop

70.4 58%

Endgame

32.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9477, 5074, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 5074, 1648

Auto

29.0 22%

Teleop

66.2 50%

Endgame

37.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.8pts

Blue projected score146.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.7
Score range: 101–172
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 141.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.8Season APEX267.6

18.8Auto29

70.4Teleop66.2

32.7Endgame37.3

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	36
teleop	86	41
endgame	61	34
foul	15	0
total	184	0

Result

Final score

184 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 102.4 pts

Match videos

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