PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.96 – 139

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.1 ±11

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 57.98Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 5.27Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 61.71Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±10.5

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX 1.21Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6023DISCBOTS

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 38.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 99.13Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5109, 4701, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

125 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5109, 4701, 8866

Auto

31.5 26%

Teleop

64.9 53%

Endgame

27.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10338, 6023, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

139 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10338, 6023, 1261

Auto

21.2 16%

Teleop

72.8 56%

Endgame

35.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125pts

Blue projected score139pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14
Score range: 99–165
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 145.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.1Season APEX343.8

31.5Auto21.2

64.9Teleop72.8

27.1Endgame35.5

32Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	50
teleop	114	34
endgame	39	38
foul	5	5
total	210	127

Result

Final score

210 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 pts

Match videos

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