PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.94 – 125.59

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.1 ±11

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 54.79Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX 1.91Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 58.24Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.6 ±9.9

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 48.67Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 24.93Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 51.99Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5109, 4701, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5109, 4701, 8866

Auto

29.3 26%

Teleop

61.3 54%

Endgame

23.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9477, 5074, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 5074, 1648

Auto

32.2 24%

Teleop

71.2 53%

Endgame

30.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.9pts

Blue projected score125.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.7
Score range: 89–152
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 142.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.1Season APEX267.6

29.3Auto32.2

61.3Teleop71.2

23.5Endgame30.5

37Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	50
teleop	93	71
endgame	45	23
foul	5	0
total	191	144

Result

Final score

191 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 pts

Match videos

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