PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.93 – 175.47

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.1 ±10.5

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 24.2Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 123.37Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 23.36Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.1 ±10.5

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 98.17Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5828Flying Riots

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 12.1Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8866Innovation Robotics

Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 65.2Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6910, 4188, 8100

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6910, 4188, 8100

Auto

36.4 21%

Teleop

98.3 58%

Endgame

35.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1261, 5828, 8866

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1261, 5828, 8866

Auto

43.0 26%

Teleop

81.6 49%

Endgame

43.4 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.9pts

Blue projected score175.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.5
Score range: 143–203
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 152.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.1Season APEX373.1

36.4Auto43

98.3Teleop81.6

35Endgame43.4

47Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	23
teleop	133	61
endgame	32	34
foul	0	0
total	221	118

Result

Final score

221 – 118

Prediction missed · off by 53.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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