PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.34 – 37.7

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.5 ±11.7

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 52.14Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4240TroTek Warriors

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 19.6Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4701Warriors (Team W.I.R.E.)

Season APEX 20.1Event APEX -3.4Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 89.2 ±12.1

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 31.45Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 8.09Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1033810338 - CircuitMakers

Season APEX 32Event APEX -1.84Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9477, 4240, 4701

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9477, 4240, 4701

Auto

22.5 37%

Teleop

27.6 45%

Endgame

10.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5074, 7538, 10338

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5074, 7538, 10338

Auto

19.6 51%

Teleop

-1.6 0%

Endgame

20.5 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.3pts

Blue projected score37.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.6
Score range: 12–94
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 121 vs event baseline 143.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.5Season APEX89.2

22.5Auto19.6

27.6Teleop-1.6

10.6Endgame20.5

35Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	12
teleop	36	11
endgame	9	9
foul	5	10
total	79	42

Result

Final score

79 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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