PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.38 – 165.79

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

160 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.4 ±11.7

5828Flying Riots

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 10.83Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7514EVE Robotics

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 46.22Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 55.33Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.6 ±10.4

6910Mill Creek Steel Talons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 39.56Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3635Flying Legion

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 65.47Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 60.76Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5828, 7514, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5828, 7514, 1648

Auto

27.0 24%

Teleop

64.1 57%

Endgame

21.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6910, 3635, 6925

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6910, 3635, 6925

Auto

26.1 16%

Teleop

88.1 54%

Endgame

49.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.4pts

Blue projected score165.8pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.4
Score range: 86–192
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.4Season APEX286.6

27Auto26.1

64.1Teleop88.1

21.7Endgame49.2

59Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	6
teleop	83	68
endgame	30	35
foul	0	5
total	160	114

Result

Final score

160 – 114

Prediction missed · off by 49.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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