PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.46 – 258.82

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.2 ±10.5

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 110.7Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7538Metal Mountain

Season APEX 26.2Event APEX 19.16Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3635Flying Legion

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 79.6Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 525 ±9.3

4188Columbus Space Program

Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 127.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6925W.A.Robotics

Season APEX 171.5Event APEX 78.91Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 52.34Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 7538, 3635

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1261, 7538, 3635

Auto

41.1 21%

Teleop

118.4 59%

Endgame

40.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4188, 6925, 1648

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4188, 6925, 1648

Auto

33.1 13%

Teleop

165.7 65%

Endgame

55.3 22%

Strengths

· 4188 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209.5pts

Blue projected score258.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49.4
Score range: 184–284
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 139.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.2Season APEX525

41.1Auto33.1

118.4Teleop165.7

40Endgame55.3

33Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	61
teleop	45	112
endgame	45	31
foul	0	15
total	124	219

Result

Final score

124 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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