PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.66 – 146.27

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

103 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±11

5828Flying Riots

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 4.56Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3091100 Scholars

Season APEX 82.5Event APEX 31.49Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5109Gladiator Robotics

Season APEX 68.3Event APEX 40.61Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.6 ±11.7

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 118.6Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7104The Bot Brothers

Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 21.19Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8100Grayson Robotics

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 6.48Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5828, 3091, 5109

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5828, 3091, 5109

Auto

20.4 26%

Teleop

45.7 58%

Endgame

13.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1261, 7104, 8100

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1261, 7104, 8100

Auto

34.2 23%

Teleop

86.3 58%

Endgame

27.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.7pts

Blue projected score146.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.6
Score range: 52–171
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

199.9Season APEX314.6

20.4Auto34.2

45.7Teleop86.3

13.3Endgame27.9

81Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	35
teleop	44	30
endgame	29	21
foul	0	0
total	103	86

Result

Final score

103 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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