Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
158.19 – 44.41
80%20%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
86 – 117
Prediction missed · off by 72.4 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 90.7Event APEX 21.66Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 92.09Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 42.7Event APEX 44.44Rank 28Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 34.1Event APEX 4.74Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 55.48Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.3Event APEX -15.81Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8866, 6910, 7104
72
/ 100 compatProjected
158.2 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 8866, 6910, 7104
Auto
23.4 15%
Teleop
95.8 59%
Endgame
42.1 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4730, 8736, 5109
29
/ 100 compatProjected
44.4 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 4730, 8736, 5109
Auto
25.5 57%
Teleop
20.8 47%
Endgame
-1.8 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.84
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score158.2pts
Blue projected score44.4pts
Red win probability80%
Event bonus sample142alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 113.8
- Score range
- 18–184
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
180.8Season APEX185.8
23.4Auto25.5
95.8Teleop20.8
42.1Endgame-1.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 35 | 32 |
| teleop | 36 | 59 |
| endgame | 15 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 86 | 117 |
Result
Final score
86 – 117
Prediction missed · off by 72.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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