Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
123.39 – 116.99
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
90 – 198
Prediction missed · off by 57.2 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.9 ±9.9
Season APEX 232.5Event APEX 93.73Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 32Event APEX 11.7Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 17.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.2 ±11.7
Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 52.29Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 214.1Event APEX 78.75Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 26.2Event APEX -14.05Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6919, 10338, 1648
61
/ 100 compatProjected
123.4 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 6919, 10338, 1648
Auto
24.5 20%
Teleop
76.2 63%
Endgame
19.4 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7514, 4188, 7538
62
/ 100 compatProjected
117 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 7514, 4188, 7538
Auto
29.7 25%
Teleop
68.8 57%
Endgame
21.3 18%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.46
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score123.4pts
Blue projected score117pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample142alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 6.4
- Score range
- 91–149
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
403.9Season APEX312.2
24.5Auto29.7
76.2Teleop68.8
19.4Endgame21.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 52 |
| teleop | 26 | 105 |
| endgame | 37 | 41 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 90 | 198 |
Result
Final score
90 – 198
Prediction missed · off by 57.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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