PCH District Albany Event presented by Procter & Gamble

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.93 – 122.98

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 61 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.2 ±11.2

4240TroTek Warriors

Season APEX 52.2Event APEX 21.79Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8080Sequoyah High School Robotics

Season APEX 89.8Event APEX 74.78Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9477Lambda (λ)

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 73.36Rank 8Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.4 ±11.1

5074RoboMustangs

Season APEX 31Event APEX 8.98Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5828Flying Riots

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 5.84Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 108.16Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4240, 8080, 9477

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4240, 8080, 9477

Auto

18.8 11%

Teleop

112.6 68%

Endgame

33.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5074, 5828, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5074, 5828, 1261

Auto

23.6 20%

Teleop

62.5 53%

Endgame

32.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.9pts

Blue projected score123pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample142alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47
Score range: 97–196
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 237 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.2Season APEX313.4

18.8Auto23.6

112.6Teleop62.5

33.7Endgame32.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	35
teleop	23	73
endgame	0	33
foul	15	15
total	81	156

Result

Final score

81 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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