Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.26 – 167.78

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 420.9 ±13.1

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 41.64Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 67.93Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 121.69Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.8 ±17.5

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 48.32Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 89.77Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9155New Tech Kraken

Season APEX 78Event APEX 29.69Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5410, 11138, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5410, 11138, 3932

Auto

46.5 21%

Teleop

128.4 58%

Endgame

46.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8581, 1592, 9155

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8581, 1592, 9155

Auto

21.0 13%

Teleop

94.8 57%

Endgame

50.7 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231.3pts

Blue projected score167.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.5
Score range: 138–261
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 166.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

420.9Season APEX274.8

46.5Auto21

128.4Teleop94.8

46.7Endgame50.7

43Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	31
teleop	58	84
endgame	61	23
foul	0	0
total	147	138

Result

Final score

147 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Match videos

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