Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.54 – 240.31

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553 ±11.7

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 22.71Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 211.57Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 175.26Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.9 ±13.1

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 44.43Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 71.02Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 124.86Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1523, 180, 59

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1523, 180, 59

Auto

97.9 24%

Teleop

223.9 55%

Endgame

84.4 21%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5410, 11138, 3932

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.3 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5410, 11138, 3932

Auto

45.3 20%

Teleop

136.3 59%

Endgame

48.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score409.5pts

Blue projected score240.3pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169.2
Score range: 211–439
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 163.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553Season APEX420.9

97.9Auto45.3

223.9Teleop136.3

84.4Endgame48.1

0Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	52
teleop	235	95
endgame	94	42
foul	0	5
total	428	194

Result

Final score

428 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Match videos

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