Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.87 – 196.36

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

210 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.4 ±15.8

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 38.59Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 56.7Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 95.58Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.6 ±15.1

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 29.81Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 87.36Rank 10Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 79.19Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1369, 6743, 8859

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1369, 6743, 8859

Auto

28.1 15%

Teleop

91.9 48%

Endgame

71.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4707, 48, 79

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4707, 48, 79

Auto

45.5 23%

Teleop

103.3 53%

Endgame

47.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.9pts

Blue projected score196.4pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.5
Score range: 162–225
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.4Season APEX415.6

28.1Auto45.5

91.9Teleop103.3

71Endgame47.8

57Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	32
teleop	108	127
endgame	61	113
foul	5	5
total	210	277

Result

Final score

210 – 277

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 pts

Match videos

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