Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.79 – 188.37

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 123.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.4 ±13.1

5872Wiredcats

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 22.87Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 106.85Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 99.07Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.8 ±17.5

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 55.47Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 94.08Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9155New Tech Kraken

Season APEX 78Event APEX 38.82Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5872, 8817, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5872, 8817, 179

Auto

28.5 13%

Teleop

104.9 49%

Endgame

81.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8581, 1592, 9155

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8581, 1592, 9155

Auto

22.8 12%

Teleop

113.9 61%

Endgame

50.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.8pts

Blue projected score188.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.4
Score range: 159–258
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.4Season APEX274.8

28.5Auto22.8

104.9Teleop113.9

81.4Endgame50

21Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	13
teleop	234	23
endgame	96	47
foul	0	0
total	371	83

Result

Final score

371 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 123.8 pts

Match videos

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