Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

367.17 – 143.04

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.5 ±11.6

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 39.6Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 171.06Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 156.51Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.5 ±14.4

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 21.76Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

39544-H Electrotechs

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 52.74Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 68.54Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9404, 2383, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9404, 2383, 108

Auto

65.0 18%

Teleop

226.1 62%

Endgame

73.0 20%

Strengths

· 2383 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5557, 3954, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5557, 3954, 5472

Auto

42.8 30%

Teleop

68.3 47%

Endgame

32.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score367.2pts

Blue projected score143pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.1
Score range: 114–396
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 160.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.5Season APEX335.5

65Auto42.8

226.1Teleop68.3

73Endgame32.9

0Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	47
teleop	175	72
endgame	66	38
foul	0	0
total	324	157

Result

Final score

324 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Match videos

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