Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

408.07 – 169.43

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

429 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553 ±11.7

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 21.3Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 213.46Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 173.31Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.4 ±15.8

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 86.7Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 49.57Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 33.16Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1523, 180, 59

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1523, 180, 59

Auto

94.8 23%

Teleop

225.5 56%

Endgame

83.6 21%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8859, 6743, 1369

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 6743, 1369

Auto

28.1 17%

Teleop

85.4 50%

Endgame

56.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score408.1pts

Blue projected score169.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 238.6
Score range: 141–436
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 158.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553Season APEX216.4

94.8Auto28.1

225.5Teleop85.4

83.6Endgame56.2

0Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	29
teleop	223	107
endgame	100	123
foul	0	0
total	429	259

Result

Final score

429 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 55.3 pts

Match videos

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