Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

412.85 – 256.29

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 131.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553 ±11.7

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 212.72Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 24.63Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 175.5Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.4 ±13.1

5872Wiredcats

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 31.81Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 117.91Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 106.57Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 1523, 59

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 1523, 59

Auto

92.9 23%

Teleop

224.0 55%

Endgame

93.4 23%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5872, 8817, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5872, 8817, 179

Auto

35.9 14%

Teleop

129.7 52%

Endgame

84.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score412.9pts

Blue projected score256.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.6
Score range: 225–444
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 170.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553Season APEX453.4

92.9Auto35.9

224Teleop129.7

93.4Endgame84.4

0Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	31
teleop	165	38
endgame	92	13
foul	5	0
total	324	82

Result

Final score

324 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 131.6 pts

Match videos

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