Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.11 – 356.03

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

399 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553 ±11.7

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 24.68Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 213.79Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

59RamTech

Season APEX 236.3Event APEX 176.64Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 482.5 ±11.6

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 34.96Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 168.34Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 152.73Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1523, 180, 59

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1523, 180, 59

Auto

98.1 24%

Teleop

227.7 55%

Endgame

86.3 21%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9404, 2383, 108

/ 100 compat

Projected

356 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9404, 2383, 108

Auto

67.2 19%

Teleop

210.7 60%

Endgame

75.6 21%

Strengths

· 2383 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score415.1pts

Blue projected score356pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.1
Score range: 326–445
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 854 vs event baseline 166.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553Season APEX482.5

98.1Auto67.2

227.7Teleop210.7

86.3Endgame75.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	77
teleop	204	261
endgame	131	117
foul	0	0
total	399	455

Result

Final score

399 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 pts

Match videos

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