Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.08 – 213.85

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 43 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.4 ±13.1

5872Wiredcats

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 33.54Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 119.31Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 108.23Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.6 ±15.1

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 34.79Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 93.85Rank 10Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 85.21Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5872, 8817, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.1 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5872, 8817, 179

Auto

32.4 13%

Teleop

131.3 52%

Endgame

88.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4707, 48, 79

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4707, 48, 79

Auto

43.2 20%

Teleop

109.3 51%

Endgame

60.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score261.1pts

Blue projected score213.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: 184–291
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 166.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.4Season APEX415.6

32.4Auto43.2

131.3Teleop109.3

88.7Endgame60.2

11Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	38
teleop	89	84
endgame	88	42
foul	0	0
total	225	164

Result

Final score

225 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 43 pts

Match videos

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