Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.97 – 104.57

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

320 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 140.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.6 ±12.7

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 13.69Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

108SigmaC@T Robotics Team

Season APEX 168.6Event APEX 40.57Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 21.71Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.9 ±19.6

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 36.57Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10616Iron Eagle Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 46Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 22Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9404, 108, 1592

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9404, 108, 1592

Auto

20.4 27%

Teleop

43.2 57%

Endgame

12.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6743, 10616, 8581

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6743, 10616, 8581

Auto

21.1 20%

Teleop

59.7 57%

Endgame

23.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score76pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.6
Score range: 54–127
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 120.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.6Season APEX240.9

20.4Auto21.1

43.2Teleop59.7

12.4Endgame23.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	17
teleop	222	86
endgame	61	29
foul	0	10
total	320	142

Result

Final score

320 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 140.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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