Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.75 – 57.07

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.1 ±16.2

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX -Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX -Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11474SEED Bulldogs Byte!

Provisional

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX -Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 314.5 ±16.6

9201TEAM FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX -Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX -Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 16.57Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1744, 3932, 11474

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1744, 3932, 11474

Auto

18.2 30%

Teleop

30.4 50%

Endgame

12.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9201, 5557, 10323

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9201, 5557, 10323

Auto

17.6 31%

Teleop

29.4 51%

Endgame

10.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score60.8pts

Blue projected score57.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.7
Score range: 35–83
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.1Season APEX314.5

-Auto5.4

-Teleop9.1

-Endgame2

-Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	4
teleop	97	41
endgame	26	4
foul	35	0
total	171	49

Result

Final score

171 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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