Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.66 – 318.83

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217 ±16.3

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 26.82Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 44.1Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 32.74Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±13.9

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 52.58Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 95.98Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 170.27Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1369, 6743, 1744

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1369, 6743, 1744

Auto

26.9 25%

Teleop

54.9 52%

Endgame

24.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8581, 179, 2383

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.8 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8581, 179, 2383

Auto

47.3 15%

Teleop

178.1 56%

Endgame

90.8 29%

Strengths

· 2383 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score103.7pts

Blue projected score318.8pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -215.2
Score range: 76–347
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 514 vs event baseline 156.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217Season APEX543.7

26.9Auto47.3

54.9Teleop178.1

24.3Endgame90.8

39Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	58
teleop	61	159
endgame	62	129
foul	0	0
total	168	346

Result

Final score

168 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 45.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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