Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.91 – 168.13

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 62.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.3 ±17.5

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 93.01Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 76.84Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

10616Iron Eagle Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 25.06Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.9 ±15.4

79Team 79 Krunch

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 78.55Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 43.27Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

39544-H Electrotechs

Season APEX 91.7Event APEX 46.31Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8859, 11138, 10616

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 11138, 10616

Auto

27.6 14%

Teleop

122.1 64%

Endgame

42.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 79, 5410, 3954

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 79, 5410, 3954

Auto

44.3 27%

Teleop

80.1 49%

Endgame

38.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score194.9pts

Blue projected score168.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.8
Score range: 140–223
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 154.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.3Season APEX324.9

27.6Auto44.3

122.1Teleop80.1

42.1Endgame38.9

22Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	68
teleop	45	88
endgame	48	64
foul	0	0
total	122	220

Result

Final score

122 – 220

Prediction missed · off by 62.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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