Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.57 – 97.12

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.8 ±19.2

11474SEED Bulldogs Byte!

Provisional

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 25.73Rank 38Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 16.19Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7570New Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 21.65Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.8 ±17.5

4010PrepaTec - Nautilus

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 42.12Rank 30Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 91

11267MASAL

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 33.8Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 21.2Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11474, 10323, 7570

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11474, 10323, 7570

Auto

10.1 19%

Teleop

20.9 39%

Endgame

23.2 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4010, 11267, 7403

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.1 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4010, 11267, 7403

Auto

21.5 22%

Teleop

47.9 48%

Endgame

29.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.6pts

Blue projected score97.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.6
Score range: 36–125
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.8Season APEX361.8

10.1Auto21.5

20.9Teleop47.9

23.2Endgame29.4

53Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	21
teleop	6	22
endgame	18	10
foul	0	0
total	30	53

Result

Final score

30 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 38.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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