Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.03 – 61.88

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.9 ±13.5

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 170.77Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 97.18Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 32.08Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.3 ±18.4

7833FALCONS

Provisional

Season APEX 35Event APEX 8.4Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

11436CougarBots

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 19.48Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 34Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2383, 1592, 2152

/ 100 compat

Projected

300 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2383, 1592, 2152

Auto

36.9 13%

Teleop

185.1 63%

Endgame

73.1 25%

Strengths

· 2383 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7833, 11436, 9404

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.9 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7833, 11436, 9404

Auto

21.6 35%

Teleop

25.0 40%

Endgame

15.3 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.59 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score300pts

Blue projected score61.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 238.2
Score range: 34–328
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 154.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.9Season APEX166.3

36.9Auto21.6

185.1Teleop25

73.1Endgame15.3

36Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	17
teleop	185	30
endgame	43	17
foul	0	5
total	269	69

Result

Final score

269 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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