Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.15 – 104.16

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±20.2

9040Sunset Robo Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 17.97Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

9201TEAM FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 62.87Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 43.31Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.5 ±16.2

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 71.14Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 13.46Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7652Miami Beach Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 67.9Event APEX 19.56Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9040, 9201, 4707

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9040, 9201, 4707

Auto

19.6 16%

Teleop

62.8 51%

Endgame

41.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5472, 6404, 7652

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5472, 6404, 7652

Auto

25.2 25%

Teleop

47.5 48%

Endgame

26.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.2pts

Blue projected score104.2pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20
Score range: 76–152
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 155.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.6Season APEX217.5

19.6Auto25.2

62.8Teleop47.5

41.9Endgame26.7

39Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	29
teleop	47	46
endgame	7	16
foul	0	0
total	76	91

Result

Final score

76 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 30.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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