Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

66.39 – 63.82

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.2 ±18

10635Merengue

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 16.79Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 87.17Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -37.57Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.3 ±19.7

5872Wiredcats

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 19.25Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9779Gladiator Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 29.88Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 14.69Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10635, 179, 6686

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10635, 179, 6686

Auto

24.2 34%

Teleop

14.9 21%

Endgame

31.6 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5872, 9779, 9494

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5872, 9779, 9494

Auto

15.8 28%

Teleop

13.2 23%

Endgame

27.7 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66.4pts

Blue projected score63.8pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.6
Score range: 36–94
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 156.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.2Season APEX193.3

24.2Auto15.8

14.9Teleop13.2

31.6Endgame27.7

18Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	15
teleop	72	14
endgame	48	41
foul	0	15
total	143	85

Result

Final score

143 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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