Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

59.42 – 59.42

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 249

Prediction missed · off by 111.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.7 ±17

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX -Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX -Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.5 ±14.7

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX -Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX -Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6686, 2641, 2152

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6686, 2641, 2152

Auto

17.8 30%

Teleop

29.7 50%

Endgame

11.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11138, 3627, 8817

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 11138, 3627, 8817

Auto

17.8 30%

Teleop

29.7 50%

Endgame

11.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score59.4pts

Blue projected score59.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 38–80
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.7Season APEX344.5

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	35
teleop	2	145
endgame	10	69
foul	0	0
total	26	249

Result

Final score

26 – 249

Prediction missed · off by 111.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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