Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

87.84 – 125.04

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 81.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.9 ±17

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 9.01Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 79Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7833FALCONS

Provisional

Season APEX 35Event APEX -0.17Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.9 ±17.7

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 46.31Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 53.58Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10635Merengue

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 25.15Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10323, 8859, 7833

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10323, 8859, 7833

Auto

20.3 24%

Teleop

32.3 38%

Endgame

32.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9404, 4707, 10635

/ 100 compat

Projected

125 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9404, 4707, 10635

Auto

36.3 28%

Teleop

66.0 50%

Endgame

28.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87.8pts

Blue projected score125pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.2
Score range: 59–154
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.9Season APEX221.9

20.3Auto36.3

32.3Teleop66

32.9Endgame28.8

19Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	31
teleop	69	9
endgame	99	9
foul	0	0
total	174	49

Result

Final score

174 – 49

Prediction missed · off by 81.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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