Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.72 – 115.67

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 70.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.2 ±18.1

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 82.56Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 3.29Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9155New Tech Kraken

Season APEX 78Event APEX 8.87Rank 11Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±16.2

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -37.9Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 113.73Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 39.84Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1592, 9494, 9155

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.7 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1592, 9494, 9155

Auto

18.1 18%

Teleop

60.2 61%

Endgame

20.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6686, 8817, 1744

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6686, 8817, 1744

Auto

18.9 19%

Teleop

50.2 50%

Endgame

31.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.7pts

Blue projected score115.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21
Score range: 67–144
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 156.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.2Season APEX254.1

18.1Auto18.9

60.2Teleop50.2

20.8Endgame31.2

56Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	34
teleop	140	41
endgame	53	32
foul	0	0
total	227	107

Result

Final score

227 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 70.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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