Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.96 – 106.63

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 80.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.1 ±15.8

6404Brazilian Storm

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 2.24Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 1.37Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 29.35Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.4 ±16.5

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 31.58Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2641Pittsburgh Central Catholic Robotics

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 33.11Rank 42Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11267MASAL

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 41.94Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6404, 5557, 6743

/ 100 compat

Projected

33 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6404, 5557, 6743

Auto

18.1 58%

Teleop

24.3 78%

Endgame

-11.4 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1369, 2641, 11267

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1369, 2641, 11267

Auto

23.5 23%

Teleop

53.1 52%

Endgame

26.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score33pts

Blue projected score106.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.7
Score range: 5–135
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.1Season APEX188.4

18.1Auto23.5

24.3Teleop53.1

-11.4Endgame26

64Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	37
teleop	98	27
endgame	47	16
foul	0	0
total	168	80

Result

Final score

168 – 80

Prediction missed · off by 80.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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