Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.32 – 76.59

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 32 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.4 ±17.3

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 44.31Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8791Mighty Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 23.92Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5410Eaglebotics

Season APEX 119.1Event APEX 39.09Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.8 ±18.1

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 10.89Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 51.6Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7570New Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 14.1Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8581, 8791, 5410

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8581, 8791, 5410

Auto

15.9 15%

Teleop

62.3 60%

Endgame

25.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1523, 4707, 7570

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1523, 4707, 7570

Auto

24.7 34%

Teleop

15.8 22%

Endgame

31.3 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.3pts

Blue projected score76.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 49–135
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 157.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.4Season APEX199.8

15.9Auto24.7

62.3Teleop15.8

25Endgame31.3

35Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	21
teleop	83	59
endgame	40	14
foul	0	0
total	154	94

Result

Final score

154 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 32 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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