Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.78 – 199.62

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.2 ±14.5

9404Forge

Season APEX 76.7Event APEX 48.2Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 42.83Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 19.75Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476.5 ±14.3

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 111.31Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11436CougarBots

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 13.06Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 75.25Rank 10Record 6-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9404, 3627, 7403

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9404, 3627, 7403

Auto

29.4 27%

Teleop

61.0 56%

Endgame

19.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3932, 11436, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3932, 11436, 48

Auto

33.0 18%

Teleop

96.9 52%

Endgame

55.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score110.8pts

Blue projected score199.6pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.8
Score range: 83–228
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 156.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.2Season APEX476.5

29.4Auto33

61Teleop96.9

19.5Endgame55.8

0Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	51
teleop	23	174
endgame	13	50
foul	0	0
total	62	275

Result

Final score

62 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 62.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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