Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.39 – 106.43

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227 ±18

10616Iron Eagle Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 27.19Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4010PrepaTec - Nautilus

Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 43.51Rank 30Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 91

5872Wiredcats

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 36.69Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.1 ±17.3

9494Hanabi

Provisional

Season APEX 61.9Event APEX 2.68Rank 40Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 26.13Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

5472The Wyld Stallyns

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 77.62Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10616, 4010, 5872

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10616, 4010, 5872

Auto

13.2 13%

Teleop

61.9 59%

Endgame

29.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9494, 6743, 5472

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9494, 6743, 5472

Auto

28.7 27%

Teleop

49.2 46%

Endgame

29.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score107.4pts

Blue projected score106.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1
Score range: 78–135
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227Season APEX229.1

13.2Auto28.7

61.9Teleop49.2

29.4Endgame29.7

47Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	45
teleop	4	68
endgame	30	35
foul	0	0
total	52	148

Result

Final score

52 – 148

Prediction missed · off by 48.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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