Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.41 – 39.47

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

432 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577.4 ±12.4

180S.P.A.M.

Season APEX 250.7Event APEX 183.33Rank 1Record 9-0-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1744Robo-Rays Robotics

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 26.4Rank 18Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 89

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 72.68Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117.3 ±20.8

7833FALCONS

Provisional

Season APEX 35Event APEX -2.06Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9201TEAM FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 75.16Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6686Bionic Broncos

Provisional

Season APEX -2.1Event APEX -33.63Rank 46Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 180, 1744, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.4 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 180, 1744, 179

Auto

72.4 26%

Teleop

141.9 52%

Endgame

59.4 22%

Strengths

· 180 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7833, 9201, 6686

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7833, 9201, 6686

Auto

7.8 17%

Teleop

12.1 26%

Endgame

26.2 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score282.4pts

Blue projected score39.5pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 242.9
Score range: 11–310
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 155.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577.4Season APEX117.3

72.4Auto7.8

141.9Teleop12.1

59.4Endgame26.2

85Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	6
teleop	245	18
endgame	116	10
foul	0	5
total	432	39

Result

Final score

432 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 75 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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