Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.19 – 78.24

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 19.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.4 ±16.6

3627The Jungle Robotics

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 40.6Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

11436CougarBots

Provisional

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 12.35Rank 39Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

5557BB-R8ERS

Season APEX 144.3Event APEX 1.24Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±18.6

8581PizzaByte Robotics

Season APEX 76.5Event APEX 47.91Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9040Sunset Robo Knights

Provisional

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 17.14Rank 44Record 2-7-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

10323DeMolay Dynamics

Season APEX 85.8Event APEX 13.19Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3627, 11436, 5557

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3627, 11436, 5557

Auto

16.9 34%

Teleop

30.3 61%

Endgame

2.6 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8581, 9040, 10323

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8581, 9040, 10323

Auto

15.8 23%

Teleop

7.4 11%

Endgame

44.4 66%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score54.2pts

Blue projected score78.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24
Score range: 26–106
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.4Season APEX219.6

16.9Auto15.8

30.3Teleop7.4

2.6Endgame44.4

66Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	16
teleop	47	15
endgame	16	33
foul	0	0
total	79	64

Result

Final score

79 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 19.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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