Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.37 – 137.69

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.6 ±15.8

8859Bora Robotics

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 67.46Rank 15Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4707FORCE

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 50.32Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 77

1369Minotaur

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 27.59Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.7 ±17.5

1592Bionic Tigers

Season APEX 120.3Event APEX 73.61Rank 17Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

11138TEKNOROB

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 50.77Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7570New Tech

Provisional

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 13.31Rank 45Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8859, 4707, 1369

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8859, 4707, 1369

Auto

32.4 21%

Teleop

82.1 54%

Endgame

38.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1592, 11138, 7570

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1592, 11138, 7570

Auto

23.7 17%

Teleop

93.1 66%

Endgame

24.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.4pts

Blue projected score137.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.7
Score range: 110–173
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 378 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.6Season APEX273.7

32.4Auto23.7

82.1Teleop93.1

38.3Endgame24.4

14Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	26
teleop	97	88
endgame	78	33
foul	0	35
total	196	182

Result

Final score

196 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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