Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.56 – 49.51

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±17

9201TEAM FORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 83.08Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 31.74Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1523MARS (Mega Awesome Robotic Systems)

Season APEX 66Event APEX 20.74Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±18.6

2152S*M*A*S*H

Season APEX 83.4Event APEX 31.32Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 88

6743Tiger Engineering

Season APEX 67.7Event APEX 26Rank 14Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7833FALCONS

Provisional

Season APEX 35Event APEX -7.81Rank 47Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9201, 7403, 1523

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9201, 7403, 1523

Auto

14.1 10%

Teleop

74.0 52%

Endgame

53.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2152, 6743, 7833

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2152, 6743, 7833

Auto

25.6 46%

Teleop

12.6 23%

Endgame

17.8 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.6pts

Blue projected score49.5pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 86.1
Score range: 22–164
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 154.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.4Season APEX186.1

14.1Auto25.6

74Teleop12.6

53.1Endgame17.8

41Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	21
teleop	59	58
endgame	25	15
foul	0	0
total	98	94

Result

Final score

98 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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