Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.32 – 197.14

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 167

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.6 ±18

8791Mighty Patriots

Provisional

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 30.83Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10635Merengue

Provisional

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 7.12Rank 28Record 4-5-1Status provisionalConfidence 73

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 98.37Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.5 ±18

3932The Dirty Mechanics

Season APEX 201.3Event APEX 123.51Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10616Iron Eagle Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 31.12Rank 23Record 5-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

9779Gladiator Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 42.51Rank 43Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8791, 10635, 8817

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8791, 10635, 8817

Auto

23.2 19%

Teleop

72.2 59%

Endgame

26.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3932, 10616, 9779

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3932, 10616, 9779

Auto

25.7 14%

Teleop

111.2 63%

Endgame

41.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score197.1pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample188alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.8
Score range: 108–225
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 153.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.6Season APEX365.5

23.2Auto25.7

72.2Teleop111.2

26.1Endgame41

56Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	30
teleop	114	78
endgame	47	54
foul	0	5
total	203	167

Result

Final score

203 – 167

Prediction missed · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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